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Mathematical forecasting of adverse course of chronic heart failure in patients with ischemic heart disease

Rasulova ZD, Kamilova UK, Ibabekova ShR, Tagayeva DR

Aim: To identifies prognostic factors and develops a method for the mathematical evaluation of the unfavourable course of CHF.

Material and methods: A total of 120 patients with IHD with I, II and III FC of CHF were examined. All patients underwent Echocardiography with assessment of end-diastolic and endsystolic volumes and LV sizes (ESS, ESV and EDS, EDV), left ventricular ejection fraction (EFLV), LV myocardial mass index (LVMMI), systolic and diastolic sphericity index (SIs and SId); In the dopplerography of brachiocephalic arteries (BCA) and renal arteries, the intimamedia thickness (IMT) at the level of the common carotid artery (CCA), the resistive and pulsatile index (RI and PI) at the level of the right and left renal arteries, characterizing the state of peripheral resistance in the renal arteries.

Results: The level of serum creatinine (Cr), the calculated glomerular filtration rate (cGFR) calculated by formula on MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study) in ml/min/1.73 m2, urinary enzyme level: alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (AP), while the total index of the fermentation was estimated to be more than 6.0.

Conclusion: The final list of signs determining the progression of CHF is cGFR less than 60 ml/ min/1.73 m2, EF LV less than 50%, EDV more than 137 ml, ESS more than 43 mm, IMT on CCA more than 1.1 mm, SId more than 0.72.